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January 21, 2005
IE Continues to Lose Grip on Market
Matthew Broersma, Techworld.comMicrosoft's share of the browser market has continued to slide, according to a new study, indicating a continued momentum for users switching to Internet Explorer alternatives. Between the beginning of December and mid-January, IE's market share dropped 1.5 percent to 90.3 percent, while the Mozilla Project's Firefox browser rose 0.9 percent to a total of 5.0 percent, according to market researcher WebSideStory. Researchers have shown Explorer's market share falling since June, when WebSideStory had its market share at 95.5 percent.
Other browsers, including Opera and Apple Computer's Mac-only Safari, also gained just under 1.0 percent to 2.1 percent, WebSideStory said.
Figures from OneStat released late last year reflect the same trend, although with different figures. OneStat found that Internet Explorer held roughly 95 percent of the market in May of last year, down to 88.9 percent at the end of November, while Firefox and other Mozilla browsers rose 5.0 percent over the same period to hit a total of 7.4 percent. Both companies track Web user activity from more than 100 countries.
Users and developers have long taken issue with Explorer over frequent security problems and the lack of features that have become standard in the competition, but only in the last six months have users begun to ditch Microsoft's browser in significant numbers.
Firefox still appears to be maintaining the momentum of its highly publicized 1.0 launch ten weeks ago--the project says users have downloaded more than 19 million copies of the browser. But it could ultimately be stalled at a low figure by factors such as incompatibility with some websites. Enterprises also frequently build in-house applications on the proprietary Microsoft technology supported by Explorer, a factor Microsoft says it is counting on to maintain its dominance. If for nothing else, Explorer is necessary to access Microsoft's Windows Update site.
However, it is ultimately in enterprises' interest to support standards rather that proprietary technology, since every Explorer-centric application increases a business' dependence on Microsoft, according to Francois Bancilhon, chief executive of Linux vendor MandrakeSoft SA.
"Our customers tell us there are two driving forces behind switching from Windows to Linux: cost, and vendor independence," Bancilhon told Techworld. "Ultimately one of the ways the desktop will evolve from Windows to Linux is by replacing the applications running on top of the operating system. Once customers move to OpenOffice and Mozilla, changing the underlying OS is a no-brainer."
Posted by Chad Dickerson at 09:13 PM
January 20, 2005
Deloitte predicts the future of technology
By Brendan SullivanDeloitte Touche Tohmatsu predicted Wednesday that digital crime and online security threats will skyrocket in 2005 as a result of the rapid growth in portable Internet and mobile technology, and that the technology industry will see a boom in the development of nanotechnology and fuel cell batteries. These are among 10 predictions Deloitte issued in its "TMT Trends: Technological Predictions 2005," the company's first publication of technological predictions. Other predictions in the report include: increased dependency on Web browsers; an increase in mesh networks; widespread use of robotics in private households; a boom in flat screen TV and computer monitor sales; private sector space exploration; and strong development in quantum computing. Deloitte defines mesh networks as "an ad-hoc network (in which) every node has a connection to every other node in the network, either directly or by hopping through intermediate nodes. This allows operators to generate a very precise picture of what is happening within the network."
The company places major emphasis on its belief that connected devices such as computers and mobile phones will increasingly become the targets of harmful attacks from viruses, worms and malware, while nuisances like spam and now "spim," the mobile phone version of spam, will also worsen both quantitatively and in terms of damage capabilities.
"Some of the problems we've seen in the past with viruses will worsen with the use of more wireless devices, and it will surely drive the rate and complexity of Internet crime up," said Jonathan D. Dharmapalan, principal and leader of Deloitte's Northern Pacific Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) division.
While it appears that experts agree that the spread and complexity of computer viruses and attacks will proliferate in the coming year, the severity of attacks on mobile devices is debatable. The wide variety of cell phones and mobile devices on the market make it hard for a single virus to attack a broad user base, said Gregg Mastoras, senior security analyst at Sophos PLC.
"There is no homogenous operating system for cell phones, PDAs and mobile devices ... so there isn’t a virus that can work on all phones," he said. Instead, he considers phishing, spyware, noncompliance and the hijacking of the Internet infrastructure as the major threats to online security.
Internet security aside, the Deloitte study also predicts major developments in technology that will start at the corporate and production levels, and eventually trickle down to consumers. Nanotechnology, a name given to the ability to manipulate an object's atomic structures, will increase in both usage and public understanding, the report said.
"When we assemble components from an atomic level we will see much better materials, and make things better faster and stronger," Dharmapalan said. The list of prospective items that nanotechnology could be used to create includes more durable plastics, heat-resistant cell phones and stain resistant pants. Nanotechnology has already been used to generate high-Sun Protection Factor, or SPF, sunscreen and in car tires, the report said.
The report also predicts fuel cell batteries, which offer much longer battery life than lithium ion batteries, will gain popularity in consumer electronics. There are many obstacles that stand in the way, however, as fuel cell batteries have yet to be deemed safe for airline travel and also must gain access to the retail market so they are readily available for replacement, Dharmapalan said.
Deloitte, a tax auditing and financial consulting firm, released its 2005 predictions based on input from 200 of its employees holding managerial positions or higher, said Paul Lee, director of research at Deloitte, which is based in New York. The input was then reviewed by an editorial committee within the company, and the results were funnelled into 10 predictions, he said. The company has no set schedule by which it releases predictions and reports, but it felt that 2005 was a "turning point" in technological innovation, and that predictions were appropriate, Deloitte's Dharmapalan said.
As a word of caution, Lee said that the predictions are just predictions, not facts. Nevertheless, he feels that they are an important part of his company's functioning. "To be a good auditor of a technology firm, you need to understand your customers, understand technology," he said.
The full technological predictions report is available for download at Deloitte's Web site, http://www.deloitte.com.
Posted by Chad Dickerson at 07:55 PM
China sees slower increase in new Internet users
By Sumner LemonFewer new Internet users got online in China during 2004 than during either of the previous two years, even as the number of people accessing broadband connections continued to soar, according to survey results released on Wednesday by the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC). At present, there are 94 million Internet users in China, according to the CNNIC report. That represents an increase of 18.2 percent, or 14.5 million new Internet users, since January 2004 when CNNIC reported that China had 79.5 million Internet users.
"That seems low," said Duncan Clark, managing director of BDA China Ltd., a consulting and market research company in Beijing. Some observers had expected CNNIC to report that the number of Chinese Internet users was above 100 million, he said.
The number of new Internet users recorded over the past year represents the lowest number of new Chinese Internet users reported by CNNIC since January 2002. It reported annual increases of 20.4 million new Internet users in January 2004 and 22.6 million new users in January 2003, compared to an annual increase of 11.2 million new Internet users reported in January 2002.
However, the slower growth rate may reflect the increased maturity of the Chinese Internet market, Clark said. "There's still going to be growth (in the years ahead) but there aren't going to be people lining up to get online," he said.
CNNIC defines an Internet user as someone who spends an average of at least one hour per week online. It tracks the number of Chinese Internet users across four different categories: leased-line users; dial-up users; ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) users, and broadband users, which includes users who access the Internet over DSL (digital subscriber line) and cable connections.
All four categories showed increases during 2004, but the rate of growth for broadband users far exceeded all of the other categories.
The number of broadband users increased 146 percent from 17.4 million users in January 2004 to 42.8 million users. By comparison, the category of users with the second-fastest growth rate was ISDN users, which increased 16.3 percent from 5.5 million users to 6.4 million users.
The number of leased-line users increased by 14.6 percent, from 26.6 million to 30.5 million, and the number of dial-up users rose 6.5 percent, from 49.2 million to 52.4 million. (The CNNIC report re-counts users with more than one method of connecting to the Internet.)
Table 1: Internet users in China (1999-2005)
Date | Total Users (millions) | New Users (millions) | Growth rate during the year |
Jan 1999 | 2.1 | N/A | N/A |
Jan 2000 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 323% |
Jan 2001 | 22.5 | 13.6 | 153% |
Jan 2002 | 33.7 | 11.2 | 50% |
Jan 2003 | 59.1 | 25.4 | 75% |
Jan 2004 | 79.5 | 20.4 | 35% |
Jan 2005 | 94 | 14.5 | 18% |
Posted by Chad Dickerson at 03:39 PM
January 19, 2005
PC shipments still strong in 2004 as Dell beats HP
By Tom KrazitThe worldwide PC market finished 2004 on a strong note, with double-digit percentage growth for the year, according to research released Tuesday by IDC and Gartner Inc. But growth will slow in 2005 as consumers pull back from their frantic purchasing of the last few years, the companies said. PC vendors shipped 177.5 million units during 2004, up 14.7 percent from the 154.7 million units shipped in 2003. This number represents the peak of a worldwide recovery from the decreasing shipments of 2001, IDC said.
Gartner's figures were slightly different, due to the different methods used by the two research companies to measure the sales of PCs from various vendors. PC shipments increased by 11.8 percent in 2004 for a total of 189 million units, according to Gartner.
IDC believes worldwide PC shipments will grow about 10 percent during 2005 and that growth will decrease the following year, it said. Business customers are in the middle of the replacement cycle that PC vendors have been anticipating for two years, but consumers have largely tapped themselves out after two years of keeping the PC market afloat amid slow business sales, IDC said.
That consumer weakness started to appear in the fourth quarter, said Charles Smulders, vice president of Gartner's Computing Platforms Worldwide Group, in a press release.
In the fourth quarter, Dell Inc. edged out Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP) in what is usually a strong quarter for HP. Dell shipped 8.8 million units during the quarter to HP's 8.2 million units. Dell also grew twice as fast as HP from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the same period in 2004, according to IDC.
Holiday purchases by consumers generally lift HP into the top spot worldwide during the fourth quarter. But the company did not show that strength in this quarter, increasing its shipments by only 9 percent compared to last year and losing market share to Dell, IDC said. Last week, HP appointed Vyomesh Joshi, the leader of its printer business, as head of a combined organization selling both printers and PCs.
IBM Corp. recently decided to get out of the PC business, selling its ThinkPad and ThinkCentre PCs to Lenovo Group Ltd. in December. That deal is expected to close in this year's second quarter. In the fourth quarter, IBM was the third-ranked vendor in worldwide shipments, with 2.9 million units, according to IDC.
The IBM-Lenovo deal appeared to have an immediate impact on IBM's shipments, with a dip in U.S. shipments noted as news of the deal spread, said Roger Kay, vice president of client computing with IDC. However, the company had largely recovered from that slight decline by the end of the year, he said.
Acer Inc. cracked the top five list of vendors worldwide on the strength of an excellent quarter in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The company sent 70 percent of the 2.2 million units it shipped in the quarter to EMEA, and it posted the best worldwide year-over-year growth rate among the top five vendors with a 33 percent improvement in shipments over the fourth quarter of 2003, IDC said.
Fujitsu Ltd. and its Fujitsu-Siemens Computers (Holding) BV subsidiary fell to fifth place in the worldwide rankings with less than 2.1 million shipments in the quarter. Fujitsu had a strong quarter in Europe but did not grow as fast as Acer and is having problems with a difficult market in Japan, Kay said.
Gartner did not break out results for the fourth quarter. Dell led the market in 2004 with 31 million units shipped during the year, outselling HP by about 3.5 million units. The two companies were followed by IBM, Fujitsu/Fujitsu Siemens, and Acer. IDC ranked the five vendors the same way as Gartner for the full year.
In the U.S., Gateway Inc. and Apple Computer Inc. occupied the fourth and fifth spots in unit shipments, according to IDC. Gateway is starting to reap the benefits of a streamlined product lineup and lower pricing following its merger with eMachines, Kay said.
Apple's runaway success with its iPod music player has led some analysts to predict that Apple will also see faster growth in its PC business. Company executives recently said that they didn't have data that proved that theory, and Kay also believed that more data is needed before the "halo effect" caused by the iPod translates into iMac or Power Mac sales.
Posted by Chad Dickerson at 06:56 PM
January 14, 2005
Survey: Yahoo, MSN catching up to Google
By Brendan SullivanGoogle Inc. provides the best overall consumer experience among major Web search engines, but Yahoo Inc. and Microsoft Corp.'s MSN have made significant gains in popularity since May 2004, according to a study by Keynote Systems Inc. Participants in the survey also chose Google as the search engine they would most likely use in the future. Google, Yahoo and MSN are the top three search engines, in that order, based on overall consumer experience, Keynote found in a survey of 2,000 consumers, the results of which it released on Thursday. Ask Jeeves Inc. and Lycos Inc. round out the top five, the San Mateo, California-based Web performance monitoring company said.
Google also leads the study's "Future Usage Index," which indicates the likelihood of consumers to use a specific search engine in the future. However, Yahoo and MSN made significant gains in the Future Usage Index relative to their performance in the last study, published in May 2004. Keynote also reported a jump in the number of users who call Yahoo and MSN their primary search engines, as primary Yahoo users jumped by 20 percent from the last study, and primary MSN users increased by 30 percent.
Yahoo and MSN also grew in popularity compared to Google, said Bonny Brown, director of research and public services at Keynote. The report attributes MSN's improved consumer rating to the search engine's decision to separate its sponsored search results from non-sponsored Web results.
Creating an overall enjoyable consumer experience is crucial for search engines, Keynote reports, because 75 percent of participants in the study said they use one search engine primarily. On the other hand, 50 percent of participants said they would change search engines if they were unhappy with their search results on a given search engine.
Keynote bases its study, called Customer Experience Rankings for the Search Engine Industry, on data gathered from a group of 2,000 U.S. consumers age 18 and older. Although the research is conducted independently, at least some of the search engines involved in the rankings are Keynote clients. "Some of the (search engine) companies are customers," Keynote spokesman Dan Berkowitz said. Keynote does not disclose names of its search engine clients, he said.
Although participants used the Internet at home or in their offices, they were monitored by Keynote throughout the whole process. "We asked (participants) first to do a product search for tennis shoes or a vehicle, or local searches, like looking for movies and restaurants, eventually moving to more complex tasks like planning vacations," Brown said.
The research panel was compiled through a series on online recruiting methods, including opt-in e-mail lists, partnerships with large portal Web sites, and sometimes from third party recruiters to acquire more specific demographics. Participants receive a US$10 gift certificate to Amazon.com for each study they complete.
Despite the company's top ranking, a Google spokesman declined comment on the survey.
Posted by Chad Dickerson at 05:40 PM
January 03, 2005
Pew study: Blogs busted out in 2004
By Paul RobertsLast year proved big for blogs and bloggers, according to data released from The Pew Internet & American Life Project. Blog readership jumped 58 percent between February and November, and comprised 32 million U.S. citizens in 2004. More than 8 million U.S. citizens have created a Web-based diary, and one in 10, or around 14 million U.S. Internet users, has contributed thoughts or comments to a blog. The figures released by the Pew Research Center are just the latest in a series of studies on the growth of blogs on the Internet, and show that the online diaries are becoming important sources of information for Internet users. Despite gains in popularity, blogs are still the domain of Internet cognoscenti. More than 62 percent of those surveyed said they do not know what a blog is, Pew said in a statement.
Pew began surveying Internet users about blogs in the spring of 2002, and has charted a steady growth in blog readership since 2003, from 11 percent of U.S. Internet users to 27 percent in November 2004.
Most of these readers, 57 percent, are male. Less than half of the surveyed blog readers, 48 percent, are under 30, and a whopping 82 percent are long-time Internet users, with more than six years experience online.
Internet users who were new to the medium, used the Internet less often or had less education were less likely to be bloggers or blog readers, the Pew study found.
Technology used to read blogs is also beginning to take hold. The study found that 5 percent of Internet users received their news from RSS (Really Simple Syndication) aggregators, or XML (Extensible Markup Language) readers that pull information from blogs and other Web pages.
Posted by Chad Dickerson at 05:05 PM
Online shopping up 24 percent this year
By Tom KrazitU.S. holiday shoppers continue to turn to the Internet when searching for presents for family and friends, according to data released Thursday by VeriSign Inc. VeriSign provides network security and authentication services to about 120,000 online retailers. Those companies took in US$8.8 billion in online spending during the period between the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 25 and the Monday after Christmas, Dec. 27. This was an increase of 24 percent compared to the same period last year, VeriSign said.
Digital photography equipment and entertainment were two of the fastest growing categories from last year to this year, VeriSign said. Transactions involving products that allow users to print and share digital photos increased 120 percent, while music and video downloads increased 54 percent.
Not only did more people find holiday gifts online, but the average shopper was more willing to purchase expensive items online than in 2003. The average transaction amount for the period between Thanksgiving and the Monday after Christmas was $145, up 12 percent from last year.
Consumers spent more money per transaction on electronics products than any other category, according to VeriSign. The average transaction for a product in the electronics category was $291, and spending across the entire category increased by 17 percent during the holiday shopping period.
Posted by Chad Dickerson at 05:05 PM